With the field set for the open seat battle in Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, the Swing State Project is updating its rating of this race from Tossup to Leans Democratic.
A D+0.5 district that Bush won narrowly in 2004, Republicans considered this race a rare pickup opportunity in a bad cycle. But a number of events give the Democratic nominee, state Sen. Kurt Schrader, the early edge:
1) The GOP primary was especially brutal, with frequent candidate Kevin Mannix releasing allegations that businessman Mike Erickson had a hard-partying (not-so-distant) past that included recreational cocaine use and impregnating his girlfriend and paying for her abortion. Erickson survived the primary, but in part due to Oregon’s mail-in ballot system. Late deciding voters favored Mannix by 14 points in SurveyUSA’s final poll of the race, but by that point, too many voters had already cast their lot with Erickson before the allegations had their full effect.
2) Erickson is entering the general election campaign badly wounded in the press and among the GOP faithful. Mannix issued this scathing non-endorsement today:
“I will not support him because he’s a dishonest person and that’s my bottom line,” Mannix told the Politico. “I cannot support a dishonest campaign. I need to stick to my principles here, and he’ll have to deal with it. That doesn’t mean I’m endorsing or supporting the Democrat, but I’m not doing anything for him.”
On top of that, Oregon Right to Life had asked Erickson to drop out of the race, and they’re refusing to support him in his general election bid. Ouch.
3) Just as compelling is the rapid Democratic trend in the district’s voter registration tallies. As recently as January, Republicans had a voter registration edge of 146,394 to 142,557 for the Democrats. The April numbers show a dramatic turnaround: Democrats now have a voter registration advantage of 161,384 to the GOP’s 143,365. So while Democrats have increased in number in this district, Republican registration has actually seen a slight decline.
While this race could still be competitive, the burden is now on Erickson to prove that it is.
Our full list of race ratings is available here.
This race is noe lean Dem at worst, likely Dem at best.
that we’re still behind the 8 ball on money in this race, but I went to the FEC and neither one has much money right now, so that angle looks good too. Schrader has only $22K CoH (as of 4/30), but Erickson also has $85K CoH. (Erickson’s money has been mostly from himself and he’s had a high burn rate: $302K in contributions and $591K in candidate loans, vs. $838K in expenditures. I think some of that activity is prior to Q1.) I don’t know how much more self-funding Erickson will do now that he’s damaged goods… he’s not a good investment for himself anymore.